I am expecting minimum 4% up and down movement on Market Index. Rest all depends on the Surprise, if there is any surprise in market then expect 6-8% up/down movement, Here surprise means If NDA get more then 380 seats, or IF UPA get more then 250 seats, this is called surprise in market terms.
Large-caps will trade in range of 3-6% Mid-caps will trade in range of 6-12% and small caps can hit 20% up/down, Mainly companies which are political sensitive like Adani Group, Ambani Group or companies from Gujarat will get heavy impact as per Seats of BJP.
If BJP wins then Two sector will get huge rally:
1. Private Banking: If BJP wins then they will work on easing Liquidity of Market and in this case they will cut rates by upto .50 BPS in next two RBI Meeting, So whole Banking Basket will move together, main focus on SBI, it’s near make or Break, from last 10 years SBI reverse from 350-355 levels, let see if it can break the resistance or not. Rest all PSU will follow the direction of SBI.
2. Auto Sector: Slow down in Auto sector starts from last year September when NBFC crisis starts, so now Auto sector is more sensitive to easing liquidity, Auto Stocks can zoom 6-12% if BJP wins tomorrow.
Stocks linked to Auto sector like Auto-Ancillary, tyres will start showing you move.
In first half of trading volume will be less as compare to normal trade, Spread will be high, Spread means difference between Buying order and selling order, Like normally we can see Canara Bank spread is .10-.25 paise, that means if buyer is at 250 then seller will be at 250.20, so tomorrow this spread will change to 1-2 rs or in some case it can be of 2-4 Rs Difference.
Generally we will get clarity on half of the seats by 9:35-10 AM, so people start making position as per the seats data, major clarity we will get by 11:30 AM, till then i think 80% counting of seats would be over. so if you are planing to do some trading tomorrow then please check the % of seats counted on that basis start making positions.
For those who are holding Naked Put or call then try to do partial profit booking when half of the counting of seats over. Becoz if BJP wins 272 still then we can see market correcting on the basis of “sell on news” and once we start getting idea who is winning IV will start crashing and option price will start adjusting the IV, right now Bank nifty weekly IV is above 100, normally this is near to 40-45, so some points of decay in premium will be there on basis of IV and weekly expiry also there tomorrow, forget casino tomorrow expiry is enough to make “ek ka dus “
Midcaps stocks which linked to political parties like Adani group, Ambani group can go up/down by 15-25%. Here 15-25% is normal in case of the this event. As monthly expiry is near so you may get a chance for making some option selling positions.
For tomorrow after seats counting is over then i will look for opportunity for options selling in these stocks (May expiry only).
- Adani Enterprises : call above 185, put below 120
- Adani ports : Call above 440, put below 330
- Relcap : Call above 160, put below 90
- Relinfra : Call above 150, put below 95
- Reliance Industries : call above 1500, put below 1200
- Maruti Suzuki : call above 7400, put below 6400
Position I will update accordingly on my telegram channel as per counting of seats and as per IV levels, All above listed stocks will show you very high fluctuations within minutes they can change their directions, so take potion only after getting clarity about seats.
Counting of seats will start from 8:00 AM tomorrow, so on that basis gap-up/gap-down 70-120 points in Nifty possible.
All the views can change as per change in the end result of counting of seats.
